Mamuka Areshidze, Caucasus Centre for Strategic Studies
Resume

The paper touches upon the presumable conflict zones in Georgia, the territories controlled by separatist governments, existing situation in separatist region-adjourning territories, situation on some segments of the Russian-Georgian border perimeter and situation in the regions, inhabited by ethnic minorities.

The probable conflict zones in Georgia are divided by categories. The number of citizens, owning Russian passports or having dual citizenship, ranges from 500 000 to 800 000, serve as a very serious relying factor for Russia, having its own citizens in Georgia.

The main tendencies of potential conflicts with different concepts are observed on the territories controlled by separatist governments (Abkhazeti and so called Southern Ossetia).

The situation is really hard on the territories adjourning separatist regions, which had been established in the 90s of the last century and is still unchangeable. The situation in Shida Kartli is especially dangerous. Russians occupied the administrative border space of former Southern Ossetia autonomous district according to Soviet maps, but the geography of villages has changed in some cases during last 17 years. As a result, some Georgian villages happened to be located beyond the border and were destroyed, some are partly intruded on separatists’ territory. Several meters separate Georgian policemen and Russian or Ossetian units from each other. So called South Ossetia government tries to restore control on some territories, which had been abandoned by Ossetian population during the first war. Presumably leaders of Russian occupational troops and separatists have a plan implying creating a buffer zone around South Ossetia. It is necessary to empty Oni, Sachkhere, Dusheti, Gori and Kareli with adjourning villages from population for realization of this plan.

During years the demarcation on Russian-Georgian border could not be handled. It was an intentional action from Russia’s part. Although Georgian part was not flexible either. After the August was the Russian border defense forces occupied all passes and gorges along the Caucasian range. Finally preparation for presumable military operation is observed alongside the whole perimeter of Caucasian range.

Representatives of foreign countries work in various forms in Javakheti, Kvemo Kartli and Pankisi gorge. Neighboring countries’ huge influence, activeness of religious organizations, available foreign education for masses of youngsters, strong economic ties with neighboring countries, a big number of Russian citizens, deficit of social integration and ignoring State language is significantly observed in these regions.