Teona Akubardia

Abstract

Russia acknowledged the independence of the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions in the wake of the military confrontation with Georgia in August 2007;

shortly afterwards, Russia concluded the military pacts with the de facto authorities of these two regions thereby legalizing for herself the presence of her military bases in this region. The a fore-cited treaties authorize Russia to deploy the military bases and set up the infrastructure, but also envision the training for the Abkhaz and Ossetian militaries and the cooperation with regard to the military intelligence. According to the treaties the areas of Gudauta and Ochamchire were allotted for the bases in Abkhazia and the territory of Tskhinvali for that in South Ossetia. Moreover, as it proves out, the Moscow plans to construct a new military airfield in the Tskhinvali region, as well as to put in order the Sokhumi (Sukhumi) military airfield and deploy yet another Russian military base in Gali. One also has to take into consideration the concentration of the Russian manpower in those regions, amounting to 1700 military servicemen in each region. The Russian federal service border guards should be calculated too; they control the de facto borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia according to the covenant of April 30, 2008  and their number in each of the regions totals 1000 military servicemen. Meanwhile, the Russian border guard provides for the control of the so called border with Georgia in the aquatorium of Abkhazia, restricting the Georgian authority over these waters while Georgia had declared the maritime blockade of Abkhazia; it all aggravates the escalation hazard with regard to the military confrontation with Russia. The aforementioned circumstances would make it easier for Russia to undertake a successful military operation on the territory of Georgia; these factors have a negative impact on the country security and also endanger the stability in Georgia in the long term. As currently there are no effective international mechanisms which would force Russia to withdraw her military bases from Abkhazia and her recognition of these regions, Georgia shall perform a reasonable and cautious policy to neutralize these factors and particularly to avoid any provocations in order to avoid the re-escalation of the conflict.