Ivliane Khaindrava
Resume of the report presented at “Black Sea Peace Network” Experts’ meeting on November 13, 2009

Turkey and Armenia took care of strengthening own positions in new realities earlier than others did. Turkey intensified foreign politics for stressing its own importance, among them - in Southern Caucasus.

Armenia tries to decrease risks, caused by the war, and to overcome partly isolation with the help of Turkey by opening alternative ways towards the West. 

Based on these and other stimulating factors Turkey and Armenia agreed on “Road Map” in April, 2009 and signed the minutes in Zurich in October, 2009.

The process of normalization of relationships between Turkey and Armenia at this stage and in the given format has gained support of main geo-political players (The USA, European Union and Russia).

In post-war period Turkey is the only base for the West (The USA and European Union) for restoring, maintaining and strengthening own positions in the Southern Caucasus.

Russia’s reasons for supporting the relationship normalization process between Armenia and Turkey are not clearly defined.

We can assume that the process of Turkey-Armenia relationships normalization will be parallel with Karabakh conflict resolution process, although the first one will prevail.

Azerbaijan positions are stable enough and totality of the leverages that Azerbaijan has provides certain guarantees that the situation of this country, after these processes, will not at least be worsened.

After the war with Russia Georgia’s positions substantially weakened at international level in general, and in Southern Caucasus in particular. Success in normalization of Turkey-Armenia relationships might result in concrete material losses for Georgia. At the same time resolving problems between two immediate neighbors will ensure establishing more secure environment in the Southern Caucasus, which coincides with Georgia’s national interests.

Georgia, realizing deeper the new circumstances and setting realistic objectives, should put an emphasis on strengthening its positions in near neighborhood.